On the Road before E Day

Day 15: Stop cribbing about opinion polls, enjoy them.

In recent days, we have seen four opinion polls related to the 16th Lok Sabha election and conducted by different news channels and their partner agencies. In the case of West Bengal, the findings and predictions have varied but conformed to a trend:

• The NDTV-Hansa poll gives the Trinamool Congress 44 per cent of the vote and 28 seats

• The CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS poll gives Trinamool 38 per cent of the vote and 23-29 seats

• The ABP News-Nielsen poll gives Trinamool 41 per cent of the vote and 28 seats

• The Headlines Today poll gives Trinamool 35 per cent of the vote and 23-27 seats


Never mind what our internal assessment is, but it is not our style to crib and dispute opinion poll figures - have never done, will never do. Let's look at the broader picture. First, the opinion polls have got the trend and the sense of the Trinamool domination right. Second, having studied opinion polls before, I know conversion of votes into seats is very difficult in a multi-cornered contest. As such, honest mistakes, misappraisals and underestimations can happen.

To me the big story of the opinion polls – and of the election of 2014 – is not the determined march of Trinamool. That was expected and our curve is still rising across the state, especially in central and north Bengal (Trinamool has always dominated south Bengal).

The big story is not even the decimation of the Congress, which is widely expected to have the lowest poll percentage among the 4 major parties in West Bengal. The Congress is still breathing in only two of Bengal’s 19 districts: Malda and Murshidabad. The ABP-Nielsen poll was the cruellest to the Congress, giving it a mere eight per cent of the vote. If true, this will lead to irreversible decline.

The big story is the battle for the silver spoon – or, as we say in friendly corporate football tournaments, the Loser's Plate - a pointless contest for number two between the CPI(M)/Left Front and the BJP. The first is slipping rapidly and the second is rising from a very low base. Yet, it needs to be understood that the BJP will still end up with a big zero in Bengal.

While the Left-BJP tussle is fascinating for political observers, it doesn’t really make a difference to Trinamool and doesn’t threaten us in the least. It does tell us though that CPI(M) supporters are frustrated and troubled by the state of their party. In a desperate attempt to stop Mamata Banerjee, they are even willing to do a Faustian pact with the BJP.

Looking ahead, in the 2016 assembly election, the BJP, the rump Congress and the CPI(M) will fight each other. They will diminish the Index of Opposition Unity and split the anti-Trinamool vote. That can leave only one party the winner to continue their work of development for Bengal.

No wonder there is a sense of quiet satisfaction in Trinamool Bhavan, where I write this blog.

Derek O’Brien
Member of Parliament
Chief Whip in the Rajya Sabha and National Spokesperson, Trinamool Congress

On the Road before E Day

Day 14: Will the Congress and BJP talk policy... not trivia?

This is turning out to be a bizarre and disappointing election in terms of the issues being raised and the concerns being highlighted. Some minor former official writes a book; a politician’s marital status becomes headline news; a high-profile candidate’s sister and her off-the-cuff remarks are interpreted by overzealous journalists: is this really what the world’s biggest democratic exercise is about? Do 814 million voters, selecting their representatives to Parliament, deserve such trivialisation?

Who does this silly discourse suit? It is perfect for the two national parties, the Congress and the BJP, which have near identical positions on many important matters and policies and are doing their best not to let the people know. If you think that’s an exaggeration, I’ll leave you with five examples.

First, on FDI in retail the Congress has been supportive and the BJP, for all its pretence, ambiguous, couching its opposition in greyness. In its manifesto, it says it opposes FDI in retail but doesn’t explicitly say it will reverse the UPA government’s policy. Why? Am I smelling something – or smelling too much?

Second, on FDI in a host of other sensitive sectors, such as insurance and pensions, the Congress and the BJP have been on the same side when the cameras are off in Parliament. They have the same clients and lobbyists to pander to.

Third, on the Land Acquisition Act, for all the big words, the Congress and the BJP jointly passed a law that still permits forced acquisition and severely curtails the farmer’s right to a fair and informed transaction.

Fourth, on the Food Security Act, the Congress and the BJP have congratulated themselves for a law that is hollow. It makes promises of substantial outlays but without adequate provision of funds. It focuses on grains and does not adequately consider high prices of protein-rich foods, such as pulses, that people need for health and nutrition.

Finally, on the Women’s Reservation Bill, both national parties make loud noises and cry themselves hoarse about women’s rights and access to political power, but act contrarily to their so-called commitments. Only eight per cent of the BJP’s Lok Sabha election candidates are women, and only 14 per cent of the Congress’ are.

On the other hand, I’m proud to say 27 per cent of Trinamool Congress candidates are women. Many of them are contesting in strong constituencies the party is likely to win. We haven’t sent our female nominees to weak seats just to make up the numbers.

Is any of this being discussed? No. Instead the focus is on some minor former official writing a book, a politician’s marital status, what a high-profile candidate’s sister said... I rest my case.

Derek O’Brien
Member of Parliament
Chief Whip in the Rajya Sabha and National Spokesperson, Trinamool Congress