On the Road before E Day

Day 13: Why AAP is missing in many States

I have often been asked why the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has not been successful in West Bengal. My argument is AAP has got traction in primarily those areas where the Congress and the BJP are the only contenders and where voters are tired and cynical of both options. Delhi is a very good example. In the capital, and in neighbouring urban areas in Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh – and from what I hear Himachal Pradesh and pockets of Punjab – AAP has got a response due to fatigue with the two national parties.

That aside, in the northern, Hindi-speaking states, AAP has had a language advantage, most of its leadership being conversant in Hindi. It has also found great support from sections of the national media, which has an influence in the national capital regional and its periphery. One consequence of this is the large number of former journalists – three of seven in the Lok Sabha seats of Delhi alone – who have signed up as AAP candidates.

These factors are tested as one moves further from Delhi. In states where regional parties and leaders are satisfying the developmental urges and political sentiments of people, AAP will find it difficult to break in. There is the additional problem of language. Arvind Kejriwal and his lieutenants cannot possibly be evocative communicators in Bengali or Odiya or Telugu.

Never a strong force in Kolkata, AAP has now almost disappeared. A few weeks ago, my old friend Mudar Patherya joined AAP. A cricket writer of exceptional ability, Mudar later became a financial services professional. As a citizen of Kolkata, he is well-liked, has friends in several political parties and does a lot for civic consciousness. I have known him for three decades now, and have long felt he is the sort of person who should be in politics.

I was disappointed when I read in the newspapers that Mudar had become a member of AAP and had agreed to stand from the Kolkata (South) constituency. I didn’t call to congratulate him but neither did I send him a message to rethink. It was his decision and I respected that.

Recently, Mudar announced he was standing down as candidate and leaving AAP. The honeymoon was over. I phoned him and asked him what had happened. He said he was unhappy that there was little programmatic clarity and support from AAP in Delhi. “I was working with eight campaign volunteers,” he told me, “five of whom were from my family. The pressure was beginning to take a toll on my health.”

Gradually it dawned on Mudar that AAP was a non-starter. For his sake, I’m glad he found out sooner rather than later. For Bengal’s sake, I hope he – and others like him – gravitate towards mainstream and not maverick politics.

Derek O’Brien
Member of Parliament
Chief Whip in the Rajya Sabha and National Spokesperson, Trinamool Congress

On the Road before E Day

Day 12: My four predictions for May 16

Sunday found me in a playful mood and I decided to attempt some predictions for the 2014 Lok Sabha election. Of course, I’m using the word 'predictions' in the sense of political assessments. If you want a prognosis on the basis of stellar movements, please visit the nearby roadside astrologer, and consult his parrot!

I’ll venture to make four predictions. The first concerns the BJP, which is clearly going to be the single-largest party. It is confident of a double century, dreaming of a higher score – but will probably end up disappointed. The party is not going to win anything in West Bengal, not even Darjeeling, on which it is setting so much store. In Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the BJP is near absent, despite the hype and hoopla. This means it will win enough seats to fit its Lok Sabha MPs into an Airbus A320. That plane has a cabin capacity of 180.

Next comes the Congress, facing its worst moment in history. I suspect it will have enough MPs to pack into an Indian Railways train compartment. The capacity here would be 72 passengers.

Third, the Trinamool Congress, the AIADMK and the Biju Janata Dal will be comfortable winners in their states and will each find ample seating room for their MPs in a bus. Perhaps we can add the YSR Congress in Seemandhra to this list. Its leader, Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy, has been scrupulous to his promise and remained equidistant from the Congress and the BJP. He has not made the same mistake as N. Chandrababu Naidu and the Telugu Desam.

A slightly smaller bus, or a mini-bus in Kolkata parlance, should do for the MPs of Mayawati’s BSP, which is giving the BJP a strong fight in Uttar Pradesh. As for the Aam Aadmi Party, maybe it will have MPs to fill the backseat of an auto-rickshaw.

So what are we left with? A plane that’s all dressed up but lacks the fuel – the incremental seats and partners – to take off and get somewhere. A lone train compartment in the middle of nowhere, with the rail tracks yanked off and no engine in sight anyway. Thankfully we have lots of buses, representing the transport mechanism – and the aspirations – of the common Indian. After May 16, these buses – and these parties – will get India to its destination.

Derek O’Brien
Member of Parliament
Chief Whip in the Rajya Sabha and National Spokesperson, Trinamool Congress