Electoral Reality of Bengal versus The BJP Hype

Ever the master of hype, the BJP is feeding news channels in Delhi that it is a “big force” in West Bengal. Innocent of ground realities in West Bengal, these channels are dutifully reporting this joke as a fact. What is the reality? Consider the two recent assembly by-elections in West Bengal, Chowringhee and Basirhat South. These took place in September and tested the limits of the BJP’s advance in the state.

When I was growing up, it was often said that Chowringhee was one of the Congress’ safest seats in the country. Located in the heart of Kolkata, it represented and still represents the urban core of our cosmopolitan state capital. In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the Congress led in the Chowringhee segment with 35,998 votes. Trinamool was close behind with 34,440 votes, the BJP had 29,503 and the CPI(M) 10,796.

The by-election numbers throw up an interesting contrast. The CPI(M) has declined still more, to 8,890 votes and finished fourth again. The Congress has slipped badly and declined to 23,317 votes, a loss of 12,600 votes or about 35 per cent of its Lok Sabha tally. The BJP has slipped to reach 23,984 votes and finish second. Trinamool ran away with the seat, getting 38,328 votes.

How Chowringhee voted is an indicator of the continued popularity of Mamata Banerjee and Trinamool in urban areas, particularly in the context of the Kolkata Municipal Corporation election of summer 2015. It put paid to the BJP’s hopes of a spectacular show in the city. The party had invested a lot of hopes on Chowringhee. Amit Shah, BJP national president, had even cancelled a meeting in north Bengal to come for a canvassing event in Chowringhee.

In the end, it wasn’t enough. Not even the smear campaign run by a section of the media could shake the popular trust that Mamata Banerjee enjoys. In fact, it may have worked to her advantage.

Basirhat South too has not been a traditional Trinamool seat. It was won by a CPI(M) candidate in 2011. In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the BJP lost in the overall parliamentary constituency but led in the Basirhat South assembly segment by 32,000 votes. When the CPI(M) MLA died, and a by-election resulted, political analysts were predicting a BJP-CPI(M) fight.

We kept a low profile and picked Dipendu Biswas, a popular local boy and former captain of India’s football team, as our candidate. He campaigned hard and reduced the BJP’s lead to a mere 1,700 votes. The CPI(M), which had won the seat in 2011, ended up third. Seeing the response to Dipendu Biswas, in a typically emotional reaction Mamatadi announced him as Trinamool candidate for the 2016 assembly election. I must point out here that the winning BJP nominee was gracious in acknowledging Trinamool’s improved performance and our ability to cut the margin.

All in all, the battle for the opposition space is between the CPI(M) and the BJP. The 2016 West Bengal election has only one frontrunner: Trinamool. As for the television channels in Delhi, they can continue living in cloud-cuckoo land.

Derek O’Brien
Member of Parliament
Chief Whip in the Rajya Sabha and National Spokesperson, Trinamool Congress

The Black Money Fiasco

... The BJP has made a laughing stock of itself.

The higher they rise, the harder they fall. Narendra Modi’s crack communication strategy, which served him so well in the past few years and hyped and exaggerated his achievements in Gujarat to an extraordinary degree before the 2014 Lok Sabha election, suddenly seems to have deserted him.

Like Karna, his government cannot seem to recall the crucial mantras when it needs them most. With the black money fiasco, the government, so cocky and hubristic till the other day, has made a laughing stock of itself.

By taking over the black money case from the Finance Ministry and saying it will directly monitor the investigations, the Supreme Court has expressed a deep lack of confidence in the Modi regime. This has only confirmed that the government was not and is not serious about unearthing the truth about illegal funds lying abroad.

Note the government’s actions in the past few days. It began by mimicking its predecessor, the discredited UPA government, and refusing to release the names shared by foreign governments and agencies. Its excuse was exactly that of the previous government, an excuse the BJP had pooh-poohed while in opposition.

Then it said it would “leak” names, following that it said it would “share” some names. What finally appeared were three names of inconsequential businesspersons – with very little money in their bank accounts.Between the Congress and the BJP, the black money account-holders have been given ample time to withdraw their money and park it elsewhere.

Meanwhile the government began leaking names of rival politicians to “friendly journalists”, again following the very skulduggery and cloak-and-dagger use of the media that Modi had criticised with such venom and mocked as part of the so-called “Delhi culture”. Had the Supreme Court not come down so hard, in the coming weeks, more names would have been “revealed” to more “elite journalists” and “pseudo-secular news channels”. And chargesheets and convictions, or actual return of black money (promised in 100 days)? You thought the BJP was serious?

Read the feedback on Twitter. Modi’s biggest backers are cursing his government. What a communication and perception mess. And so quickly.

Derek O’Brien
Member of Parliament
Chief Whip in the Rajya Sabha and National Spokesperson, Trinamool Congress